THE EXAMINER | Jeffrey Phelps | April 2, 2012
If you turn on the television today you have a very good chance of seeing the media’s general estimated delegate count for the four remaining “Republicans” that are vying for the 2012 nod.
Although the numbers vary slightly depending on which mainstream source used, currently, the establishment’s media is displaying the approx. totals as Romney leading with around 550 delegates, Santorum with around 240, Gingrich around 130, and Ron Paul trailing the pack with usually less than 50.
Are these numbers accurate? Let’s find out.
The first problem we see when studying delegate counts comes from the very first caucus held in Iowa back in January.
Although the media says they “estimate” the delegate count as proportionate to the percentages of votes won in each caucus, of Iowa’s 25 available delegate seats, even as Santorum, Romney and Paul basically split the votes there relatively evenly, somehow the media's estimated delegate count shows Santorum as winning 13 delegates and Romney winning the other 12….as if Paul received no votes whatsoever.
With that being said, if taking percentages of caucus votes into account to determine the estimated final delegate totals, the media’s general delegate estimate is already faulty after just the first caucus.
However, as we dig even deeper into the situation those estimated delegate counts are actually much further flawed than even the Iowa example shows.
Even though you haven't heard much about it in the media, in all the caucus states around the country Ron Paul’s delegate strategy is actually paying off as county after county and district after district are sending more Ron Paul Delegates to State Conventions than any other candidate.
How is that possible?
First and foremost, in the caucus states the original caucus that takes place is actually only a straw poll and truly only serves to inform the voters of each precinct as to where their perspective precinct’s voters generally stand.
The real elections don’t actually take place until immediately thereafter when those who wish to become delegates stay behind after everyone else goes home. This is where the process begins to narrow down the hundreds or thousands from each caucus state that want to become a delegate.
Individuals from each precinct that want to become a delegate pitch each other as to why they each deserve to represent their precinct at their County’s Convention. They then hold another election to decide who will fill those available seats and vote those individuals to those County Conventions, which typically takes place a couple weeks later, and many already have.
The process basically repeats itself at the County level as all those who were voted to County Conventions then vote to see who of those will represent their county at the district level, narrowing the field down even further.
From there, District Delegates will then vote a week or two later to see who will ultimately be selected to State Conventions, from there to the National Convention, where in Iowa’s case only 25 National Delegate seats are available.
Only then will the American people finally get to know the exact amount of delegates each candidate receives from the caucus states because it is there at the National Convention that those delegates finally make the official vote for the candidate of their choice.
Additionally, as these County and District Conventions continue to unfold, it is becoming widely evident that Ron Paul’s supporters have been the most educated on this process and also seem to be the most dedicated thus far.
Thousands of Paul Delegate hopefuls have been overrunning County and District Conventions all over the country. In turn, it has been mostly Paul Delegates that continue to move on to the next successive convention to this point, unless GOP Party ‘officials’ from those precinct, County or District Conventions purposely tried to illegally force Paul’s supporters from participating.
Unfortunately, that is something that has happened in quite a few locations around the country.
Being that as it is, in the caucus states that have actually held their straw poll and Precinct, County and District Conventions already, with so many Paul Delegates taking over the majority of the districts thus far, it is almost a done deal that Ron Paul will likely win much of the available delegate seats from many of the caucus states.
Even in some of the “primary” states like Virginia and Oklahoma there are portions of delegate seats available that are not bound to the original election and are open to any candidate that made the original ballot. These delegate seats will be apportioned in separate elections much like the caucus states.
Under these circumstances, if the establishment’s media continues to merely report an estimate proportionately based on the initial caucus straw poll in each caucus state, the American people will continue to be misled about what the actual count may be.
It will also be very interesting to see how the media handles the real numbers as they start to emerge from the National Convention. Ron Paul may actually currently be, by some estimates, in 3rd or even 2nd place overall behind Romney and truly seems to be gaining steam as the process continues to unfold.
Some in the GOP have shuttered at the fact that young Ron Paul supporters have done their homework and decided to go out in mass to attempt forcing their candidate into the Republican nomination and have tried to do everything they can to stop them from doing so.
The problem with that is Ron Paul’s delegate hopefuls have truly done their homework, know the GOP’s election laws and are following them by the book, something the other candidate’s supporters aren’t doing. This forces anyone trying to stop them to break the rules to do so.
The problem the establishment is having with even that scenario is that so many legal Paul Delegate hopefuls have decided to participate this time that the establishment doesn’t have the organization in place to cover the incredible amount of locations being overrun by Paul supporters, and in turn Paul’s Delegates are winning the majority of the Caucus State Delegates in many of those states anyway.
Stay tuned as this remarkable story continues to unfold.