NOLAN CHART LLC | Carl Goodson | March 12, 2012
There are three possible outcomes concerning Dr. Paul in this primary season of which two of these could prove to be very detrimental to the GOP. Recently Governor Sarah Palin correctly advised the GOP that they ignore Ron Paul at their own peril.
The Republican establishment appears to believe that Dr. Paul’s supporters will fall into line and vote for the eventual Republican nominee just because he is “anyone but Obama.” As Governor Palin suggest, this could be a risky position for anyone in the GOP to take.
When people agree with Dr. Paul’s philosophy of limited government, personal liberty and a “mind our own business” foreign policy, elections are transformed into a referendum about the message and not about the messenger. Any person that believes in Dr. Paul’s message cannot in good conscience vote for a candidate that does not share their belief in that message.
Ron Paul supporters will ask themselves how they can possibly vote for someone like Rick Santorum knowing that he voted to raise the debt ceiling five times and helped double the size of the Education Department. It would be difficult to vote for Newt Gingrich after he supported an “Individual Mandate” and sat on a couch with Nancy Pelosi for a commercial urging citizens to combat global warming. Mitt Romney implemented Romneycare in Massachusetts and supported the TARP bailout of his Wall Street friends; actions that leave a bitter taste in the mouths of small government activist.
One possible outcome of the Primaries is that Dr. Paul would win the nomination outright, thereby delighting his supporters but disappointing the “Establishment” that earlier in the race had seemed to prematurely ordain a Romney victory.
Another possible outcome that should worry Republicans everywhere is a Ron Paul third party campaign. In the 1992 Presidential election third party candidate Ross Perot garnered almost 20 percent of the popular vote. While falling far short of winning the Presidency, Perot siphoned enough votes from George H. W. Bush that Bill Clinton won with a plurality of votes. It is possible the same fate could await this year’s Republican nominee if Dr. Paul and his supporters feel slighted by the Republican establishment.
What should be of even greater concern to the GOP is that Dr. Paul’s supporters will feel so disenchanted that they decide to stay home and not participate in the November elections. For a party that is seeking to maintain control of the House of Representatives and take control of the Senate this could be disastrous.
In this primary voting season Dr. Paul has carried an average of 18 percent of the vote and in some selected states has carried as much as 40 percent. These percentages indicate that if Dr. Paul decided to mount a third party campaign he would garner 20 million votes in the general election. Given Dr. Paul’s ability to attract some Democrat and many Independent voters it is conceivable that he could attract as many as 25 million or more votes. The eventual Republican nominee, if not Dr. Paul, will need these 20 to 25 million votes to push them over the top against President Barack Hussein Obama. The GOP will need these votes to attain their goals of Congressional dominance.
On one of the social networking websites there is a page that ask Ron Paul supporters to pledge to vote for no one but Dr. Ron Paul and millions of people that have taken this pledge. In an effort to send the GOP a message that the time has come for the Party to align its views more closely with those of Dr. Paul, his followers are willing to write in his name on the ballot even if they know this ensures a second term for President Obama.
All hope is not lost for the GOP however. There is one possible way for the Republican nominee, provided it is not Dr. Paul, and the Republican Party to galvanize support from Paul’s supporters, defeat President Obama and assume control of both Houses of Congress; make sure one of the two men on the Presidential ticket has the surname of Paul.